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Prof. Dr. Mustafa Özdoğan · Medical Oncologist
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The HPV Vaccine at 20. Years: A Rare Case in Which We Can Truly Prevent Cancer – The Remaining Barriers

The HPV Vaccine at 20. Years: A Rare Case in Which We Can Truly Prevent Cancer – The Remaining Barriers
In this article
Topic: The impact of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine on preventing cervical cancer at its 20. year, real-world evidence, the WHO elimination strategy, the single-dose approach, gender-neutral vaccination, and vaccine hesitancy. Sources: Canfell (Nature Medicine commentary), Falcaro and colleagues (The Lancet 2021 and 2026), WHO/SAGE, GLOBOCAN 2022 (references at the end). Intended for preventive health and information; not individual medical advice; contains no direct quotations.
There is a painful reality in oncology: we try to treat most cancers only after they have developed . Yet a very small number of cancers can be prevented before they even arise — and the most striking example is cervical cancer. The cause of almost all cervical cancers is clear: a common virus called HPV. Twenty years ago, when the first HPV vaccine was approved in 2006, a door rarely opened in human history began to open: the possibility of eliminating a cancer with a vaccine. The evidence accumulated over the past 20 years is breathtaking: cervical cancer decreased by 87% in vaccinated cohorts of young girls, almost no cases occurred among those vaccinated in some countries — and a brand-new study published in 2026 reported, among young women vaccinated at an early age in England, a 100% reduction in deaths from cervical cancer (in other words, zero deaths). This is one of modern medicine's greatest victories. Yet the story is not over: vaccination rates remain below target in much of the world, inequalities are deep, and unfounded fears take their toll. In this article, we discuss both this extraordinary success and why we still say "the work is not finished."
%87 ↓
Reduction in cervical cancer among women vaccinated at ages 12-13 (England, real-world data)
%100
2026 study: reduction in cervical cancer deaths among women aged 20-24 vaccinated early (zero deaths)
349.000
Number of women who died from cervical cancer worldwide in 2022; most were in low-income countries — a preventable tragedy
— KNOWING A CANCER'S CAUSE: HPV AND THE CERVIX —

What makes cervical cancer special is how clearly its cause is known. There are more than 200 types of HPV; only a small subset are cancer-causing (oncogenic). In particular, HPV 16 and 18 types account for most cases of cervical cancer — and all current vaccines target these two types.

As one expert strikingly observes: in cancer prevention, the strength of the causal link between HPV and cervical cancer is matched only by the link between tobacco and lung cancer. Such a clear cause-and-effect relationship is rare in medicine — and precisely this clarity makes prevention through vaccination possible. Just as quitting smoking reduces lung cancer risk, the HPV vaccine targets cervical cancer's origin .
— THE STRONGEST EVIDENCE: WHAT HAPPENED IN THE REAL WORLD? —

A vaccine working in the laboratory is one thing; seeing it prevent cancer in real populations is something else entirely. The real-world evidence accumulated in recent years has exceeded even expectations.

STRIKING DATA FROM DIFFERENT COUNTRIES

  • England (Lancet 2021): In the cohort of girls offered vaccination at ages 12-13, cervical cancer decreased by 87%; severe precancerous lesions (CIN3) decreased by 97%. Among those vaccinated later, the reduction was 62% (ages 14-16) and 34% (ages 16-18) — in other words, the earlier, the more effective.
  • England (Lancet 2026 — new): Among women aged 20-24 who were vaccinated early (with ~88-90% coverage), between 2020-2024, no deaths from cervical cancer occurred — compared with 23,1 deaths expected from historical data. This represents a 100% reduction in deaths.
  • Scotland: Among women vaccinated at ages 12-13, during 8-12 years of follow-up, no cases of invasive cervical cancer were detected.
  • The Netherlands: Among fully vaccinated women, the risk of cervical cancer was 92% lower and the risk of severe precancerous lesions was 81% lower (follow-up of up to 15 years).
  • Denmark: Among those vaccinated at age 14, high-risk HPV infections were almost eliminated over more than ten years (<1%).
Chart — Age at Vaccination and Reduction in Cervical Cancer (England)
The earlier vaccination takes place, the greater the protection. Reduction compared with the unvaccinated cohort.
%87 Ages 12-13 %62 Ages 14-16 %34 Ages 16-18
The vaccine is most effective when given before exposure to the virus (before sexual activity begins). This is why the target age is before adolescence.
— THE GLOBAL BURDEN: A DISEASE OF INEQUALITY —

In the shadow of these successes, an enormous tragedy continues — and its distribution is unjust.

THE HUMAN DIMENSION OF CERVICAL CANCER

  • Global burden: More than 662.000 new cases of cervical cancer and approximately 349.000 deaths worldwide in 2022 (GLOBOCAN). The greatest burden falls on low- and lower-middle-income countries.
  • Children left without mothers: Every year, more than 200.000 children lose their mothers to cervical cancer — because the disease often strikes women in their most productive years. This is a social crisis with serious consequences for children's survival and education.
  • Inequality: Although vaccination and screening are highly effective, most deaths occur in countries with the least access to them. In the words of one expert, eliminating cervical cancer is not only a matter of public health, but a matter of human rights .
— THE WHO GOAL: ELIMINATING A CANCER —

In 2020, the World Health Organization set an unprecedented goal: to eliminate a cancer — cervical cancer — as a global public health problem. Elimination is defined as reducing the annual incidence of cervical cancer to below 4 per 100.000 women.

🎯 THE 90-70-90 TARGETS (2030)

90: 90% of girls should be fully vaccinated against HPV by age 15.

70: 70% of women should be screened with a high-performance test (such as an HPV DNA test) at ages 35 and 45.

90: 90% of women with precancerous lesions should be treated; 90% of women with invasive cervical cancer should be appropriately managed.

When this three-part strategy — vaccination + screening + treatment — is implemented together, cervical cancer could become a thing of the past within this century. Modeling studies show that millions of cases and deaths could be prevented if the targets are met.

— THE SINGLE-DOSE REVOLUTION: OVERCOMING BARRIERS —

One of the biggest practical barriers was that the vaccine generally required two or three doses — particularly in countries with limited healthcare infrastructure, completing all doses poses a major logistical challenge. A development in 2022 changed the game.

WHO/SAGE 2022: A single dose may be enough

After assessing the accumulating evidence, the WHO's independent expert advisory group (SAGE) concluded that a single dose of HPV vaccine provides protection similar to two doses . This is a turning point, particularly for low-income countries: a single dose eliminates the problem of "loss" when people do not return for the second dose, reduces costs, and enables many more girls to be reached with the same number of vaccines. It means that a lifesaving vaccine reaches more girls.

— NOT ONLY WOMEN: HPV VACCINATION IS A UNIVERSAL CANCER VACCINE —

For many years, the HPV vaccine was seen as "a vaccine that protects girls from cervical cancer." Science has shown, however, that the picture is much broader: HPV triggers not only cervical cancer, but many other cancers too.

OTHER CANCERS CAUSED BY HPV

  • Anal cancer (in both women and men)
  • Oropharyngeal (throat/tonsil) cancer — increasingly common in men
  • Penile cancer (men)
  • Vulvar and vaginal cancers (women)
This expanding understanding has brought the "gender-neutral vaccination" approach to the fore: reducing the burden of HPV requires vaccinating both girls and boys — because the virus is transmitted between both sexes in the community, and vaccinating boys both protects them directly and reduces circulation in the population (herd immunity). As one expert emphasizes, a crucial cultural shift is needed: to see the HPV vaccine not as a "gynecological vaccine," but as a truly universal cancer prevention vaccine . Many countries that initially vaccinated only girls have expanded their programs to include boys.
— WHY ARE WE STILL SHORT OF THE TARGET? COVERAGE GAPS —

With such strong evidence, why do thousands of women still die from this preventable cancer? Because even the best vaccine does not work unless it goes into an arm. Vaccination rates remain below target in much of the world.

COVERAGE CHALLENGES (using Italy as an example)

  • Coverage below target: In Italy, full vaccination coverage in the cohort born in 2012 is 51% among girls and 45% among boys — far below the WHO target of 90%.
  • No region reached 95%: No region of Italy reached the optimal coverage threshold of 95% for any birth cohort.
  • Low series completion among boys: Vaccination series completion rates lag particularly among boys; regional inequalities are pronounced.
  • A gap during the transition: As adolescents move from pediatric to adult care, they may stop attending routine preventive visits and miss recommended vaccinations.
— VACCINE HESITANCY: UNDERSTANDING AND ADDRESSING FEARS —

Vaccine hesitancy is another important reason for coverage gaps. Understanding it — and responding with empathy, without blame — is integral to prevention efforts. Most hesitant parents are not acting in bad faith; they are families who want to protect their children but are confused.

Frequently expressed fears and the scientific reality

The most common concerns relate to vaccine safety and are often fueled by false or alarmist content circulating on social media. Frequently heard fears include infertility (fertility) and concerns about autoimmune diseases such as type 1 diabetes. These concerns have no scientific basis. Evidence from worldwide administration over 20 years of more than 500 million doses confirms the vaccine's excellent safety profile. There is no evidence that the HPV vaccine causes infertility; on the contrary, by preventing cervical cancer, it may protect fertility (because cancer treatments can threaten fertility).

💬 WHY IS PERSUASION DIFFICULT? WHAT WORKS?

Benefits appear later: The vaccine's biggest "communication problem" is that its benefit is not immediately visible. The vaccine prevents a cancer that may develop years — even decades — after infection. This makes the value of protection abstract for adolescents and their families. The idea that "an injection I receive now prevents a cancer 30 years from now" is not intuitive.

What works: According to experts, the most effective approach is to convey clear information based on scientific evidence with empathy . When pediatricians and health professionals address the topic early, openly, and confidently — without embarrassment or excessively clinical language — vaccination rates can increase significantly. Patient, respectful information, rather than blame.

🗣 For parents and young people

The HPV vaccine is one of our most powerful cancer prevention tools, and decades of evidence based on more than 500 million doses show that it is safe. It is most effective before exposure to the virus — generally before adolescence or in early adolescence. If you have questions or concerns about vaccination, discuss them freely with your child's physician; a good physician takes your fears seriously and provides understandable, evidence-based answers. Turn to reliable sources and health professionals who know you, rather than alarmist social media content. "Catch-up" programs may also be available for older children and young adults who missed vaccination — you can consult your physician about this too. This vaccine is not only for girls; boys also benefit, both for their own protection and for population immunity.

⚡ DROZDOGAN ACADEMY — 20 YEARS OF THE HPV VACCINE
⚡ WHY DOES IT MATTER?

Cervical cancer has the potential to become the first cancer that can be eliminated through vaccination and screening — a rare opportunity in medical history. This is not only a women's health issue; it is an issue of inequality and human rights that leaves hundreds of thousands of children without mothers each year and strikes predominantly poor countries. Accurate information directly saves lives.

✅ PROVEN SUCCESS

The real-world data are extraordinary: in England, among those vaccinated early, cervical cancer 87%↓, precancerous lesions 97%↓; in the 2026 data, cancer-related deaths among young women vaccinated early 100%↓ (zero deaths). No invasive cases among vaccinated women in Scotland. Even a single dose provides strong protection (WHO/SAGE). Excellent safety with 500M+ doses.

⚠️ REMAINING BARRIERS

Coverage is below targets; regional and gender inequalities exist (low series completion among boys). The greatest burden falls on poor countries. Vaccine hesitancy — fears about fertility and autoimmunity (without a scientific basis) — is fueled by social media disinformation. Benefits appearing later make motivation difficult. Vaccinations are missed during the transition from pediatric to adult care.

🩺 IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

The HPV vaccine needs to be positioned as a universal cancer prevention vaccine for girls and boys, rather than as a "gynecological" vaccine. The most effective strategy: vaccination at an early age, a gender-neutral program, the convenience of a single dose, catch-up programs, and empathetic, evidence-based communication by physicians. Vaccination + screening + treatment together make elimination possible.

❓ OPEN QUESTIONS

How many countries can achieve the 90-70-90 targets by 2030? How durable is single-dose protection over the long term? How can equitable access be ensured in low-income countries? What is the most effective way to address vaccine hesitancy? And how can middle-income countries, including Türkiye, strengthen gender-neutral vaccination and screening programs?

— CONCLUSION —

The HPV vaccine's 20 years are one of the most beautiful stories modern medicine can tell: we discovered that a virus causes a cancer, developed a vaccine against that virus, and now — in real populations, with real data — we are watching that cancer fade away. Seeing zero deaths from cervical cancer among young women vaccinated early in England is not an abstract statistic; it means mothers who continue living, children growing up, and lives saved. This is the power not of treating cancer, but of preventing it from the outset — and nothing in oncology is more valuable. Yet the victory is not complete. Unless the vaccine goes into an arm, even the most brilliant science remains on paper. Coverage is still low in much of the world, inequalities are deep, and unfounded fears take their toll. The task for the coming years is not to invent a new vaccine — it is to deliver this extraordinary tool we already have to every girl and every boy in every country. Eliminating cervical cancer is no longer a question of "Is it possible?"; it is a question of "Will we do it?" The answer lies neither in the laboratory nor in the vaccine vial, but in information, access, and our sense of responsibility toward one another.

Sources

  1. Canfell K. Cancer prevention through HPV vaccination: progress and challenges at 20 years (commentary). Nature Medicine 2026. (The strength of HPV–cervical cancer causality; elimination framed as a human right.)
  2. Falcaro M, et al. The effects of the national HPV vaccination programme in England on cervical cancer and CIN3 incidence. The Lancet 2021;398:2084-2092. (Ages 12-13: cervical cancer 87%↓, CIN3 97%↓; ages 14-16 62%; ages 16-18 34%.)
  3. Falcaro M, et al. Cervical cancer mortality trends following HPV vaccination in England, 2001-24. The Lancet 2026 (online June 2026). (100% reduction in cancer-related deaths among women aged 20-24 vaccinated early; zero deaths versus 23,1 expected.)
  4. WHO. Global strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem (2020); elimination threshold <4/100.000; 90-70-90 targets.
  5. WHO/SAGE. One-dose HPV vaccine offers solid protection against cervical cancer (11 April 2022). (One dose provides protection similar to two doses.)
  6. GLOBOCAN 2022. Global burden of cervical cancer: ~662.000 cases, ~349.000 deaths; predominantly in low-/lower-middle-income countries.
  7. Data from other countries: Scotland (no invasive cases among those vaccinated at ages 12-13); the Netherlands (risk 92%↓, 15 years of follow-up); Denmark (high-risk HPV <1%). Systematic review PMC12153211; Our World in Data (Australia/England <8/100.000, projection of <4 in 10 years).
  8. Univadis Italy / Medscape (June 2026). Comments by Barretta M (gender-neutral vaccination; coverage gaps in Italy; vaccine hesitancy and physician communication).

This article is intended for preventive health and information; it is not individual medical advice, a diagnosis, or a treatment recommendation. The effectiveness and safety data presented are based on observational and epidemiological findings available at the publication dates of the cited sources; although real-world studies (including Falcaro and colleagues) show strong associations, individual outcomes may vary. The safety of the HPV vaccine is supported by more than 500 million doses worldwide and over 20 years of follow-up; claims that the vaccine causes infertility or autoimmune diseases have no scientific basis. Vaccination decisions should be assessed together with a qualified physician (a pediatrician, family physician, or relevant specialist), according to personal health status and age; vaccination schedules and "catch-up" programs vary by country. This article aims to provide evidence-based, empathetic information rather than judge individuals experiencing vaccine hesitancy. Cervical cancer screening should continue as recommended, even in vaccinated individuals. All data were verified against The Lancet, Nature Medicine, WHO, GLOBOCAN, and relevant primary sources; the article contains no direct quotations.

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