Chronic Diseases Will Increase by 31% by 2050 – Türkiye Near the Top of the List

What Are Non-Communicable Diseases? Why Do They Matter So Much?

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a group of diseases that do not pass from one person to another and generally follow a long-term, chronic course. Four main categories account for the vast majority: cardiovascular diseases (heart and blood vessels), cancer, diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). These four disease groups share risk factors: obesity, smoking, a sedentary lifestyle, unhealthy diets and harmful alcohol consumption.

The OECD report stresses that these diseases are more than an individual health problem. NCDs reduce people's quality of life, limit their capacity to work, increase the burden on health systems and erode national economies' growth potential. In other words, this is a crisis that concerns every country's health minister and finance minister at the same time.

How Much Has the Situation Worsened Since 1990?

The historical picture presented in the report reveals that the situation has not improved despite decades of health policy efforts. Across the OECD during 1990–2023, cancer prevalence rose by 36%, COPD prevalence by 49%, cardiovascular disease prevalence by 27% and diabetes prevalence by a full 86% . As of 2023, 1 in every 10 people in the OECD had diabetes, while 1 in every 8 was living with cardiovascular disease.

Why Is Türkiye So High on This List?

One of the report's most striking visuals compares countries' projected increases in new NCD cases due to ageing. In this ranking, Türkiye is just behind Korea (58%) and Costa Rica (55%), in third place at 54% — almost twice the OECD average (31%). What does this figure mean?

Several structural factors underlie this picture. In recent decades, Türkiye has experienced lifestyle changes driven by rapid economic transformation and urbanisation: increased fast-food consumption, sedentary working practices, a lack of established exercise habits and adverse changes in the food environment. The rise in obesity rates in Türkiye is outpacing even the global trend. Add population ageing — a demographic transition Türkiye is experiencing relatively quickly — and the NCD burden will weigh much more heavily over the next quarter-century.

A Health Problem or an Economic Problem? Both

Perhaps the OECD report's strongest message is that NCDs are now a top priority not only for health systems but also for national economies. Calculations using the SPHeP (Strategic Public Health Planning) NCD model make this link tangible through striking figures.

According to the model, if NCDs did not exist at all, health spending across the OECD and EU over the next 25 years would be approximately 40% lower, and average GDP approximately 4% higher . This is not a speculative thought experiment, but a modelling result based on existing data and projections. The real-world implications of these figures are expressed as follows: reducing NCD risk factors to the levels of the best-performing 25% of OECD countries (the Upper Quartile Scenario) would, on average, reduce annual premature mortality during 2026–2050 by 11.4%, total health spending by 6.2% and increase annual GDP by an average of 1.3%.

Obesity: The Enemy at the Heart of the Entire Battle

The report emphasises that the greatest opportunity in tackling NCDs across the OECD lies in focusing on obesity . In the Upper Quartile Scenario, more than half of the total risk-factor effect (50% across the OECD, 42% in the EU) is attributed to obesity alone. If all OECD countries achieved the obesity prevalence of the best-performing 25%, the annual number of new NCD cases would fall by 11%, the premature mortality rate would fall by 5.6% and annual health spending would fall by 3.3%.

The most striking economic modelling finding in the report is this: the effect on GDP of reducing obesity prevalence is 10 times greater than the effect of improving cardiovascular disease survival rates. This figure fundamentally affects every policy debate about how to prioritise health investment. Improving treatment is valuable, but the main economic return comes from preventing disease.

What Does the Report Recommend? Three Interconnected Pillars

The OECD report argues that successful NCD strategies rest on three main pillars. A weakness in any of them also limits the effectiveness of the others.

Which Risk Factor Should Be Targeted First? Leverage Analysis

The practical framework the report offers policymakers is particularly valuable. Analysis of 51 countries shows that targeting a country's single most important risk factor accounts for approximately half of the total potential effect on NCD incidence, health spending and GDP. Addressing the first two risk factors brings this proportion to 75%, and the first three to 90% . This finding provides a decisive strategic guide for countries with limited resources: rather than trying to solve every problem at once, they should establish country-specific priorities and concentrate resources on the first two or three risk factors.

Prevention or Treatment? The Numbers Speak Clearly

The report directly answers a question at the heart of health policy debate: should limited resources be directed towards treatment or prevention? The model offers an economic answer. Bringing CVD and cancer survival rates up to the best-performing 25% in the OECD (in other words, improving treatment) would reduce the annual premature mortality rate by 3.2%. However, bringing key risk factors such as obesity and smoking to the same target would achieve this effect to a much greater extent — and the economic gain in GDP would be 10 times greater than that from treatment. This figure demonstrates beyond dispute that, although prevention may appear less glamorous than treatment, it has much greater transformative potential.

This article was created using various editorial tools, including artificial intelligence, as part of the process. It was reviewed by human editors before publication.