Annual Cancer Deaths Will Reach 18.5 Million in 2050

As cancer continues to place a heavy burden on health systems worldwide, researchers project that by 2050, 18.5 million people will die from cancer each year. Compared with the estimated 9.7 million in 2022 this projection represents a substantial increase of 89.7%. These data address the cancer burden around the world and show that the disease will become even more widespread in the future. The study, published on November 5, 2024 in JAMA Network Open, delivers striking messages for public health.

2022 and 2050: A Dramatic Increase in Cancer Cases and Deaths Is Expected

Researchers project that in 2050 there will be 35.3 million new cancer cases annually worldwide. Compared with the estimated 20 million cases in 2022, this represents an increase of 76.6%. The projected number of cancer cases in 2050 is 19 million among men and 16.3 million among women. An increase of this magnitude poses a serious public health threat.

Figure 1. Estimated Annual Numbers of New Cancer Cases and Deaths Worldwide by Sex, 2022-2050

The data came from a study analyzing the burden of 36 cancer types across 185 countries and territories worldwide. In 2022, global cancer prevalence was recorded as 178.9 cases per 100000 people. The most common cancers were breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, and nonmelanoma skin cancer.

Cancer prevalence refers to the number of people in a population who have already been diagnosed with cancer and are alive during a particular period. In other words, it reflects the proportion of people who have been diagnosed with cancer and are still alive.

The statement above that "in 2022, cancer prevalence was recorded as 178.9 cases per 100000 people" means that approximately 179 people in every population group of 100000 were living with a cancer diagnosis that year. This number shows how widespread cancer is in the population.

The Most Common Cancer Type: Lung Cancer

Lung cancer in 2022 accounted for 12.4% of new cancer cases and 18.7% of cancer deaths. It is also projected to be the most common cancer (13.1%) and cause of cancer death (19.2%) in 2050. Lung cancer stands out for its high mortality owing to a lack of opportunities for early diagnosis and treatment, demonstrating the need for structural transformation in global health systems in this area.

Cancer Types Expected to Show the Greatest Increase in Incidence

By 2050, the cancer types with the greatest expected increases in incidence include

• nonmelanoma skin cancer (119%),
• bladder cancer (100%),
• mesothelioma (99%),
• prostate cancer (96%),
• pancreatic cancer (95%),
• stomach cancer (88%),
• gallbladder cancer (87%),
• vulvar cancer (87%),
• lung cancer (86%),
• multiple myeloma (86%), and
• colorectal cancer (86%).

These rates of increase demonstrate the need to update cancer control strategies and the importance of preventive measures.

A Dramatic Rise in Cancer Deaths in 2050: 18.5 Million

The study projects that most of the 18.5 million cancer deaths expected in 2050 will occur among men (10.5 million men and 8 million women).

The largest increases in deaths are expected,

• in prostate cancer (136%),
• bladder cancer (124%),
• nonmelanoma skin cancer (117%),
• mesothelioma (109%),
• colorectal cancer (103%),
• vulvar cancer (101%),
• pancreatic cancer (100%),
• melanoma (100%),
• multiple myeloma (97%), and
• kidney cancer (96%).

These data indicate that cancer death rates will rise rapidly for certain cancers, posing a serious public health threat.

Figure 2. Comparison of Differences in the Mortality-to-Incidence Ratio (MIR) in African and Asian Countries in 2022 with the Global Average MIR

What Is the Mortality-to-Incidence Ratio (MIR)?

MIR is a ratio showing how many people diagnosed with cancer die from the disease. The higher a country's MIR, the higher the death rate among people diagnosed with cancer in that country. A high MIR may indicate low survival among cancer patients and shortcomings in treatment access or quality.

What the Figure Means

• Orange Bars (Above the Global MIR): These countries have an MIR above the global average. In other words, the death rate among patients diagnosed with cancer in these countries is higher than the global average. Many African countries, particularly The Gambia, Niger, and Somalia, have high MIR values. This indicates difficulties in accessing cancer treatment or limited treatment options in these countries.

• Blue Bars (Below the Global MIR): These bars represent countries below the global average. In this situation, the death rate among patients diagnosed with cancer is lower than the global average. In Asia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and China in particular fall below the global average MIR. This indicates higher survival among people diagnosed with cancer in these countries and potentially better access to treatment and treatment quality.

Health System Reform and Improved Cancer Management Are Essential

The researchers emphasize the importance of increasing access to health services and improving their quality in the fight against cancer. They state that expanding universal health coverage and strengthening health systems for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, management, and treatment could slow the trends anticipated in these projections.

Improving access to cancer treatment in low- and middle-income countries is particularly important for both reducing death rates and increasing treatment success.

This study shows that tackling cancer is a complex challenge requiring not only treatment but also the restructuring of health policies worldwide. Investment in preventive health services and early diagnosis programs has the potential to reduce the cancer burden over the long term.