The Effect of Early Cancer Detection Screening Programs on Cancer Incidence and Cancer-Related Causes of Death

Cancer screening performed in accordance with international guidelines is known to have a significant effect on cancer incidence and cancer deaths. Screening also contributes to reducing the current and future cancer burden.

ASCO 2020 Congress featured a study conducted to gain an in-depth understanding of trends in cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths. Using an analysis based on cancer statistics and US population data, the study estimated cancer incidence and cancer deaths in 2040. The average annual incidence (2011-2015) and mortality rates (2012-2016) of the 10 most common and deadly cancers as of 2020 were projected through 2040.

The Projection of Cancer Data From 2020 to 2040 for the US Was as Follows

As of 2020, the most common cancers were breast, prostate, lung and colorectal cancers, whereas the most common cancers in the projections for 2040 were breast cancer, lung cancer, melanoma (a type of skin cancer) and colorectal cancer.

In 2020, the cancers most frequently causing death were lung, colorectal, pancreatic and breast cancer, whereas the projected ranking of cancer deaths in 2040 was lung, pancreatic, liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer, followed by colorectal cancer.

The study produced interesting findings. For example, prostate cancer was among the most common cancers in 2020, but was projected to fall substantially to 14th place in the cancer incidence ranking in 2040.

By contrast, melanoma showed an increase of almost the same magnitude. Breast cancer remained the most common cancer both in 2020 and in the projection for 2040. Breast cancer deaths had declined over the past few decades. This decline is expected to continue consistently in 2040. This consistent decline in mortality rates despite the increase in breast cancer cases is very important. Advances in breast screening and treatment play a major role in this outcome.

Lung cancer ranked first among cancer-related deaths in both 2020 and the projection for 2040. Although lung cancer consistently ranks first among cancer-related deaths, the number of lung cancer deaths is expected to decline in 2040. This can be explained by the use of low-dose chest CT screening for early lung cancer detection, declining smoking rates and advances in treatment.

Deaths from pancreatic cancer are projected to increase further in 2040. There are many reasons for the rise in pancreatic cancer deaths. Difficulty with early diagnosis because of the lack of a recommended screening test for pancreatic cancer is an important factor in this increase.

Conclusion

In summary, this study is very valuable in showing the effect of cancer screening programs on cancer diagnoses and deaths in the coming years. Studies of this kind will also make major contributions to countries' healthcare planning and health policy development. To achieve better outcomes, it is important to make screening programs widely available throughout society and to ensure that everyone can access guideline-recommended screening programs.